I'm not sure it will work either. Although perhaps the intention is less to make existing smokers stop, and more about discouraging the next generation from starting?

I wonder too how elastic the relationship is between cost and consumption, for something as addictive as cigarettes. Many people will smoke regardless of the cost.

I would argue that some of the more effective methods to controlling tobacco consumption have been the socially stigmatizing anti-smoking laws. Banning smoking in bars and restaurants and cafes and malls and beaches and sporting events and playgrounds have turned smokers into socially loathed people who get dirty looks from the rest of society. That must go some way toward making them feel like quitting.