Will India-Pakistan Tension Escalate?
A predawn raid in the Kashmiri town of Uri by militants at an army camp that killed 18 Indian soldiers put pressure on the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to launch a military response. Analyst believed that that Modi would retaliate to avoid a domestic backlash. Within hours of the attack, India reflexively accused Pakistan of being behind the attack. Politicians and pundits demanded a punchy response which prompted India’s Home Minister Rajnath Singh to label Pakistan a terrorist state.
Pakistan has categorically rejected any involvement in the raid. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman stated that India was desperately looking for ways to deflect the world’s attention from the situation in Indian-administered Kashmir while on the other hand the Pakistan army chief has said that the armed forces were closely watching the region and was prepared for any response.
There may be some voices within the Indian government that may be advocating the idea of inflicting limited punishment to Pakistan. They may be advocating this as a face-saving act to fulfill electoral promises. Even a measured military response by India toward Pakistan raises the specter of nuclear escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals who have fought three wars since the partition of British India.
However, when governments make decisions, it is guided by realities and not by public outcry. India recognizes the fact that Pakistan has the 11th biggest army in the world. The consequences of any form of attack are far worse than people can realize. Strategists in India may have fancy-titled doctrines that they could punish Pakistan without feeling any pain themselves. The nuclear equation has stunted all such doctrines.
The Indian government must be aware of the economic consequences of an attack on Pakistan. There is the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project underway that would bring badly-needed gas to India. The project is schedule to be completed by 2019. An outbreak of hostilities between India and Pakistan may delay the project indefinitely. Secondly, there is a risk of Beijing getting involved as China has invested heavily in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that traverses Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. There is also the risk of investments shying away.
In the end, it appears the Hindu-nationalist government of Modi will eventually be treading a path as softly as its predecessors. The armchair warriors of India may continue with their rhetoric and beating the war drums but that may have no effect on the government’s decision.
An escalation of tension between the two countries currently appears to be out of question. The war hysteria that has been currently built up will after a short period of time, simply fizzle out.
That is, if proper sense prevails.
Sir Acchabaccha, through this discussion and debate hope people can find out for themselves a long forgotten truth which the whole world chose to ignore. Hope people of Bangladesh get justice. What happened in Bangladesh was wrong. Truth was suppressed with active backing of America, Britain and China, all Champions of Human Rights. Truth will always shine. Thank your for your patience and time. Have a nice day.
AaronDz: The statements you have made in your last comment are truly from websites and you have stated that. Now, let me put some facts for your own review:
You state the Butcher of Baluchistan or Bangladesh had 3000,000 Muslims massacred in Bangladesh. Do you know of even bothered to find out for how long Tikka Khan was the General Officer Commanding (GOC) in the then East Pakistan? For your information, he was not there for more than a year.
Do you know how long the internal strife within East Pakistan lasted? The issue boiled over on 26 March 1971 when Sheikh Mujib was arrested and flown to West Pakistan. The hostilities ended on 16 December 1971 with Pakistan being split and Bangladesh coming into existence.
Is it possible for trained army to go about killing 300000 million people withing a span of just 9 months? Not just killing but also raping women and you are unsure whether it was 200,000 or 400,000 or something in between. But what difference does it make even if you add another zero to the figures as long as they are figures being used to malign an army that lost!
If the Pakistan army was involved in mass killings and rape as you state( and the figures are pretty good), who then was defending East Pakistan during several months of turmoil? The combined force of East Pakistan during 1971 stood at 57000 personnel. If you to just divide your figure of 3000000 killings plus the 400,000 rapes that you claim took place by 57000, you will realize immediately that the Pakistan forces were doing nothing else the whole day except killing and raping! You don't need to be nuclear scientist to realize the truth behind the malicious propaganda.
Can you tell me what the rag-tag group of poorly trained soldiers with guns in hand called Mukti Bahini were doing? They were killing unarmed Biharis and raping their women. No one speaks of this.
Remember: It is always the victor that writes the history.
Sir Acchabaccha whatever information and evidence I provided on this open forum is not my own. This information I picked up from Wikipedia and United Nations website and not from any Indian newspaper. It is a known fact that UN designated terrorists and Terrorist organization freely operate on Pakistani Soil. Osama bin Laden was just one among them. You can get a full list of UN designated Terrorists operating on Pakistani soil on Wikipedia and UN website.
Sir it is just disheartening that you refute the established truth that Pakistani army under Chief of Army Staff Tikka Khan famously known as Butcher of Baluchistan or Butcher of Bangladesh massacred an estimated 3,000,000 Muslims and raped between 200,000 and 400,000 Bangladeshi women. These were human beings Sir, have some compassion. Not one Muslim country raised any objection when this happened may be because of their skin color. Kindly check in Google for Bangladesh massacre photos. Even children were not spared. Trust me this actually happened.
My neighbor a old man from Balochistan told me about the atrocities committed in Baluchistan by the Pakistani army. Even one of my Colleague is from Balochistan and has verified this fact.
Sir I was not yet born when most of these incidents happened and I rely on the above mentioned websites for factual information and so do millions of netizens. I don’t want to repeat what I have stated previously. If you were the leader of India in those days and you had even an ounce of Humanity irrespective of your religion, what would you do when millions of Bangladeshi were pouring into India and millions were being massacred and raped and no country bothered to intervene, with US and Britain (Champions of Human Rights) dangling nukes over your head if you dared to intervene and stop the massacre. Have a nice day.
One neutral reader should read the story of Indian spy Kalbhushan Yadav, who is an Indian Navy officer, but has been masterminding and organizing the dirty acts against Pakistan in Baluchistan and Karachi. He is in Pak custody now.
Indian politicians are unfortunately failing to learn that any unstable country like Libya, Syria, Iraq, Aghanistan is no GOOD to anyone, rather a factor that can potentially detestable the whole region. So, if this lesson is learned then they would never and never activate RAW and others to destabilize Pakistan.
Indian intelligence agency "RAW' is trying to destabilize Pakistan, by:
a. Start a war between Shia and Sunni people, and in order to do that, they have organized dozens of attacks on Shia minority in Quetta, Karachi and Gilgat areas. However this has been tackled well, because the people are now well aware of the RAW and Indian motives and designs.
b. Pattron a very small section of rebels (less than 2% of population) in Baluchistan to give them weapons, financing and bases via Aghanistan for doing the hit and run attacks on police, army, civilians, gas pipelines and railways etc. The too have been eliminated by the Pak Army by more than 90%.
3. The Indian biased readers only rely on web sites and their media for their favored information and do not want to hear from the horse mouth, who actually speak from the battle ground.
The question is, if Europe can live in peace after warring for hundreds of years, then why cannot India and Pakistan live in peace?
Unfortunately the Indian media and politicians do not bring to the lime light the sacrifices of 60,000 Pakistanis (died) while fighting the war with terrorists to eliminate them once for all. On an open note, this war is for the benefit of Pakistan but more beneficial for other countries including India.
Europe, Russia, China and US all are knowing and acknowledging the Pakistan's efforts except INDIA, who is still operating via RAW and ignoring the dialogue on Kashmir.
Pathan kot attack proved Pakistan's non involvement and so is the case with Urri attack, but who should tell Modi to handle the facts with HONESTY and stop promoting hatred against Pakistan. He is virtually pinioning the Hindu minds on a state level, which would work against the unity of India down the road, for sure. One result in shape of Muslim Kashmiris resurgence is visible outcome of Modi's rhetoric about Hindu supreme. Because being the only Muslim majority state in India, they fell and foresee no future for them under the Hindu supremacy despite a non Hindu constitution.
AaronDz:: Your statement that "From centuries till date India has never been the aggressor" has had me wondering if you really know history or just depend on websites for your information.
In, 1971 Pakistan was split simply because India was involved in a proxy war with Pakistan. It had trained and armed the Mukti Bahinis to wage a guerrilla war inside the then East Pakistan which is now Bangladesh. Just recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi proudly accepted the fact that India had a hand in the dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971..
If you keep yourself abreast with the news, you will not have to depend on Google for your information.
Possibly, India has similar plans now with the province of Baluchistan in Pakistan which borders Afghanistan. It has recently offered political asylum to Brahamdagh Bugti of Baluchistan who is a wanted man in Pakistan. Possibly you may be aware, India and Afghanistan have recently become great "pals." and the relationship is gaining strength. India has an embassy and f-o-u-r consulates at different cities in Afghanistan where it hardly has any Indians living there in contrast to just an embassy and consulate office in the UK where thousands of Indians reside.
It all appears to be a part of big game plan to split Pakistan once again not by attacking it and getting labelled as an "aggressor" but by creating an uprising within the country just the way it did in the 70's in East Pakistan.
nishantvshah: Your comment that "this government was chosen by the people and has nothing to do with religion" is totally of the mark. It is a fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of which Narendra Modi is a member is supported by Rashtriya Sawayamsevak Sangh (RSS). RSS is a Hindu organization which has no space for any other religion. It was the "Hindutva" card played by the BJP that got it the votes, and after coming into power they took the first step to ban the slaughter of cows in India. Was this act not based on religion?
Brit, you are right, it is the media that foment the politics of hate, which as a result poison the minds of general public.
During the cold War between US and Soviet Union, in 1979, Soviet Union took control of Afghanistan, and their underlying motive was to get access to the warm water of Arabian sea. On the other side US came in and launched private armed groups called lashkers or Taliban or Al Qaeda (Now all called as terrorist groups) to counter the Soviet Union in and around Afghanistan.
When Soviet Union was defeated, these groups started to mount the suicide attacks on Pakistan Army and cities, Europe, USA, Russia and India etc.
The Pak Army has to, therefore fight wars (lately called Zarb e Azab) in order to eliminate these groups, which was a huge and big challenge because these groups are hiding in the cities and mountains and launch hit and run attacks on civilians, police, army and Masjids.
Around 60,000 Pakistanis have laid their lives to fight them off.
American acknowledge also that what they could not achieve in Iraq and Afghanistan by most modern army and weapons, have been achieved by the Pakistan Army who has eliminated these terrorist groups to the extent of 80%..Now they are doing the combing operations in order to identify and kill off the "Sleeper Cells of Terrorists".
Americans openly admit having launched these groups and created big mess, when they left these group without disarming them, at the end of Soviet War.
Indian take advantage of it and tell the people that they are from Pak Army, in order to shine their politics.
Pakistan also knows that modern day war is no good to anyone rather would roll back the developmental process, which is why Pakistan is on the defensive.
But Modi's war mongering is changing this scenario and if it continues, Pakistan has to zoom into the war mode again.
An outsider's newsflash to citizens of both countries ...,
India interferes in Pakistan and Pakistan interferes in India
Stop being brainwashed by your politicians
Sir Equin0x, kindly read about Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 on Wikipedia which is a unbiased website for information. You will get a clear picture of what happened. As always Pakistan started the war with operation Gibraltar. It clearly states that Pakistan lost the war because of inadequate standards of military training, its misguided selection of officers, poor command and control arrangements, poor intelligence gathering and bad intelligence procedures. Pakistan attacked India when India was recovering from a defeat with China in 1962. From centuries till date India has never been the aggressor.
Our leader Mr. Modi said yesterday, Terrorism is humanity’s enemy. While India exports software, Pakistan exports terrorism across the world. Whenever news about terrorism comes, news also comes either the terrorist came from there or like Osama Bin Laden went there after the act.
Sir please read about the origins of rivers Indus, Chenab and Jhelum which flow in Pakistan. India controls them and not the Pakistani army. Please update your information from Google. Under the Indus water treaty, India can use only 20 per cent of the water of the Indus, which flows through it first, for irrigation, transport and power generation. For any such treaty to work, it is important for mutual trust and cooperation. It cannot be a one-sided affair and can be scrapped any time.
Sir please update your information from Google and kindly do not spread misinformation. People on this forum are educated and generally are not biased and can research the correct facts for themselves.
The Pakistan's defending reply shall be to fire back on the point, where from the gun has fired.
The India does not like war, good, Pakistan too do not want war. So why is then the Modi flexing its muscles, "To spread terrorism in the region"!
In 1965, Pak Air Force damaged almost half of Indian planes in just a few days, and still India newspapers and books tell their public, that they had won the war. They need to up date their war knowledge from neutral info.
Indus water treaty has been guaranteed by several world bodies and it is not a joke for a country looking for a seat in the UN security counsel, to discard them all.
Moreover Pak army is stationed at the mouth of most of the Pak rivers, then who would dare block it.
Not my personal opinion. Just what i came across on various Internet forums and Indian news channels. Scrap the Indus water treaty which will virtually starve the population of Pakistan. This will force the population to revolt again the Pakistani Army and ISI and stop them from meddling in India's affairs and sending terrorists into India. Block all imports from China which will have a limited blow on its economy and show China its place.
Why my dear friend Equin0x, do you think India will start an Attack. In the history of Mankind, if there is one country that has never attacked any other country, its India.
Don't make assumptions. For point e, i would pity your half baked knowledge you gained from pakistani newspapers.
Indian army is one of the most respected armies in the world. At Least it is far ahead than Pakistani Army and it has been proven 3 times.
Acchabaccha did not have to mention the central government as a Hindu nationalist. This government was chosen by the people and has nothing to do with religion.
Equinox : "..schools located inside Pakistan, which shall be retaliated equally."
So are you saying that India will attack Islamic schools and Pakistan will then attack Hindu or Christian or Buddhist schools in India ?
The conclusion is that India shall not start the war, rather may do limited bombing, sometimes later, on the religious schools located inside Pakistan, which shall be retaliated equally.
From the start, BJP has been practicing the "Pak Hate" politics, with the help of media, which as a result has created a sense of hate among the Indians.
When causalities happen on the border, the masses are easily swayed by the one sided and often baseless media reports, who as a result call for attack on Pakistan, but they factually do not know that:
a. There is a revival of freedom struggle in Kashmir as the Kashmiris are sacrificing their lives for achieving legitimate freedom.
b. Pakistan is virtually a military state, which has evolved from three wars with India, one with Russia and one with the terrorists (recently going on). Its military experience is huge.
c. Pakistan has developed an unbeatable defense and deterrence mechanism with several layers and forceful strategies, alongside the atomic technologies.
d. India being the big stake holder will have to loose out on massive economic opportunities by starting the war.
e. The drunk, ill trained and lazy Indian army boys lack the usage of modern equipment and have little experience of modern day wars.
f. By CPEC, the Russia, China and Central Asian countries have forged a strong alliance and huge business stakes in Pakistan, they would never allow Pakistan to go down, in a worst case scenario.
g. 60 Islamic countries too are at the back of Pakistan, because it is the only Muslim Nuclear country.
h. Also Turkey and Saudi Arabic have very close economic and military ties, both being sizeable powers in terms of money and weapons.
i. Almost all the neighbors of India are unhappy with its threats and illegitimate interference in their internal affairs.
In view of the above, the advisors of Modi have already advised him to avoid the face off with Pakistan and instead utilize diplomatic and international pressure to force Pakistan's submission.
The media in both countries will probably help get the people in a frenzy to demand military action – People are so easily led.