Can Noynoy Aquino’s numbers go down?
Maganda analysis ni Conrado de Quiros ng Inquirer dito. May kahabaan nga lang.
Theres The Rub
Questions
By Conrado de Quiros
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 23:57:00 10/27/2009
Can Noynoy Aquino’s numbers go down? Can he be affected by the black propaganda or smear jobs against him? Can the other candidates narrow the gap and make the big push on E-Day?
Those are the questions people are asking. Indeed not just Noynoy’s opponents but his own supporters, the first in anticipation, the second in trepidation. My own answer to it is this: Depends on how it affects what’s giving him those numbers.
Astonishingly, nobody seems to want to ask why Noynoy is up there to begin with. It’s assumed as given, a thing to attack and defend with the usual campaign methods. Yet that is the most astonishing thing in the world. By the normal rules of electoral politics, he should not be there at all. Which was how the call for him to run was first met: It seemed preposterous.
As his opponents like to point out, he has no record of great achievement as a senator (unlike his father), he has no record of leading a campaign against tyranny (unlike his mother), and he has yet to prove himself. It’s true, he doesn’t, he hasn’t. But if so, why did he knock out Manny Villar, the reigning king of the ring for some time, even without throwing a punch? Why did he come out of nowhere, relatively unknown, unsung and unheralded, to become top draw?
That fact alone must show we are not dealing with normal elections governed by normal electoral rules and normal campaign methods. My explanation for it, as I’ve repeatedly said, is that this is an Edsa masquerading as an election. Or more accurately, this is really Edsa III expressing or manifesting or channeling itself in elections. It’s the Edsa story, or paradigm or parable that has put Noynoy there, and it is keeping him there.
That is one exceptional advantage. Other candidates have yet to work on their image or identity, Noynoy does not. Anything related to Edsa—the yellow ribbon, the term “People Power,” the song “Ang Bayan Kong Pilipinas,” and so on—boosts his stock. His volunteers do not have to campaign for him directly. They need only campaign for Edsa—rekindling the Edsa spirit, keeping the Edsa spirit alive, spreading the Edsa spirit—and they will be campaigning without campaigning.
The bad news, as that goes for the other candidates, is that Noynoy’s volunteers won’t even have to force the issue. January and February are “Edsa months,” January being celebration of Edsa II and February, Edsa I. Over the last couple of years, in particular, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has made it a point not only to dim the thing that brought her to power but to spit on it. For good reason, at least for her: It was the only thing that could pry her loose from Malacañang, not term limits. Now, lo and behold, it is the very thing that is prying her loose from Malacañang—in the guise of an election.
Heaven works in mysterious ways? Feel free to give it that interpretation.
Can Noynoy’s numbers go down? Well, maybe if his camp forgets why he’s up there and gives him leaden feet. But with all those advantages, the more apt question probably is: Can Noynoy’s numbers go up?
But I have a more interesting question, which is: Will the same principle apply to Noynoy’s fellow travelers? Or more to the point, will the Edsa factor carry as well Mar Roxas and the Liberal Party candidates to the Promised Land?
This is the part where I have to make a caveat about my proposition that these are not normal elections governed by normal campaign methods. That may be true only at the presidential level.
As far as Noynoy’s running mate and senatorial slate goes, I don’t know. I don’t know that the normal dynamics of elections will suspend for them as well. Will they be seen as Noynoy’s indispensable companions in Edsa III? Or will they be seen as just candidates like everybody else vying for public office?
Maybe a little of both. The others at least can take comfort in Mar Roxas’ experience. By stepping down and giving way to Noynoy, he has written a subplot to the story. He pitched his move to the public as “sacrifice,” not unsuccessfully despite his detractors’ attempts to paint it only as force majeure, or dire necessity. “Bayan muna bago sarili (Country first before self),” was how he phrased it, a thing that did not fall on unsympathetic ears. Not quite incidentally, it is a theme Kiko Pangilinan has harped on himself, drawing attention to the fact that he too gave way to Roxas, foregoing his own vice-presidential aspirations. His detractors can always give it cynical interpretations, but you never know how these things go down with the public.
Since he made the decision to step down, Roxas’ numbers have climbed dramatically. Maybe part of the reason for it is that the public sees him as better cast in that role (he had been number two in surveys for vice president after Chiz Escudero). But yet another reason for it, possibly a bigger one, is his “sacrifice,” a theme that fits hand-in-glove with the movie or myth or meta-reality called Edsa. What is Edsa if not about nobility and sacrifice?
As for the senatorial candidates, I don’t know. History shows this country has no yen for bloc voting, not even before martial law when there were only the Liberal and Nacionalista parties. The only time Filipinos voted that way was in November 1971 when it brought nearly all the Liberal senatorial candidates to power. That was in protest against the Plaza Miranda bombing, which the public blamed on Marcos. Who knows? Maybe today’s Liberal senatorial bets can turn this into a protest vote too. Maybe they can write their own subplots in the story too. Stranger things have happened. After Aug. 5, you’re prepared to believe almost anything.
Including miracles.
