Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's days may be numbered but his fall could be slow and chaos could ensue.
Few analysts, foreign governments or intelligence agencies believe Assad himself faces any fate other than negotiated flight or death at the hands of his own people...Foreign powers doubt Syria's troubles would end with Assad's removal. His Alawite minority might well fight on, if only to try to protect itself against the ethnic backlash that could follow his fall."
"If he would have abdicated early in the crisis... perhaps he could have found safe harbour somewhere internationally as part of a negotiated settlement. But now he has so much blood on his hands... that would be nearly impossible."
- Right, this was what I thought - even if he's offered asylum in Qatar or elsewhere, it will only be a matter of time before someone takes revenge. I think he knows that he's gone beyond the point of no return, hence the all out battles raging in Aleppo, Damascus and Homs to regain lost ground. And the potential use of chemical weapons is also a very real threat to its neighbours.
"Officials frequently bemoan the chaotic nature of the opposition and its limited capability to take on Assad."
- This would be because the govt's strategy is to divide and conquer the rebels as they have done over the past 16 months but where there is a will, there is always a way.
Hu Wan said And their president will be exiled here too! ...isn't this what is being offered to 'hanging-by-a-thread-soon-to-be-ex-president' Assad?
- This exile to Qatar is a possibility but ...
Update today: Syria could see prolonged endgame, ensuing chaos
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/26/syria-endgame-idINDEE86P0FZ2012...
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's days may be numbered but his fall could be slow and chaos could ensue.
Few analysts, foreign governments or intelligence agencies believe Assad himself faces any fate other than negotiated flight or death at the hands of his own people...Foreign powers doubt Syria's troubles would end with Assad's removal. His Alawite minority might well fight on, if only to try to protect itself against the ethnic backlash that could follow his fall."
"If he would have abdicated early in the crisis... perhaps he could have found safe harbour somewhere internationally as part of a negotiated settlement. But now he has so much blood on his hands... that would be nearly impossible."
- Right, this was what I thought - even if he's offered asylum in Qatar or elsewhere, it will only be a matter of time before someone takes revenge. I think he knows that he's gone beyond the point of no return, hence the all out battles raging in Aleppo, Damascus and Homs to regain lost ground. And the potential use of chemical weapons is also a very real threat to its neighbours.
"Officials frequently bemoan the chaotic nature of the opposition and its limited capability to take on Assad."
- This would be because the govt's strategy is to divide and conquer the rebels as they have done over the past 16 months but where there is a will, there is always a way.
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1232107--defected-syrian-comma...
Syria’s most prominent defector, Brig Gen. Manaf Tlas to unite the fractured opposition ... "