By Farrukh Saleem, TNN, 17 January 2010
TOI..........Aman ki Aasha
The Himalayan ranges, covering an area of about 650,000 sq km, have shaped the culture, politics, religion, mythology, climate and military doctrines of all six countries - Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The Great Mountain Arc encircles India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan - a land mass of a little more than four million sq km. This area has 1.5 billion inhabitants; around 22% of the world population in an area about half the size of the US.
The arc, the inescapable environmental stimuli in the Indo-Pak region, has been the most impenetrable natural barrier between the subcontinent and whatever lies north, east or west of the Arc. Genghis Khan founded the ‘largest contiguous empire in history’ but failed to circumvent the Himalayas into India. The Himalayas continue to shield India from invaders in the north (read: China). Other than the Sino-Indian border skirmishes of 1962, the history has never witnessed any major invasion across the Himalayas.
As a consequence, based on environmental determinism, Indian military strategists in the post-Independence period laid out an ‘Order of Battle’ whereby at least half of all Indian Army corps were stationed within a striking distance from the Indo-Pak border. Pakistani strategists, with little threat from the west, also laid out an ‘Order of Battle’ whereby six of the nine corps were stationed within a striking distance from the border.
India and Pakistan are in a state of active hostility. For FY 2009, India’s defence spend, as per Jane’s Information Group, will rise by 50% to a colossal $32.7 billion. The budget translates into 2.7% of the country’s GDP. In the same period, Pakistan’s official defence spend is set at $4.3 billion (unofficial estimates go as high as $7.8 billion). If we were to match India’s rise, we would have to spend above 5% of our GDP on defence. For the record, the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia used to overspend their GDP on defence - Soviet Union is no more, so is Czechoslovakia.
As per the World Bank data, 74% of Pakistanis earn $2/day or less as opposed to 75% Indians. Roughly, one out of every two Pakistanis is short on food. Last year, there were 60 million Pakistanis short on food. That number now stands at 77 million; a 28% increase.
Over the past century, economic development has been all about trans and cross-border trading. Pakistan has two population centres - central Punjab and Karachi. The former is 1000km away from the nearest port. And the area between Karachi and central Punjab can’t support population concentration. To grow, we must trade. And, the only population concentration to trade with is on our east.
Time and money are on India’s side. Dialogue among civilians means little. What is needed is a strategic dialogue. How can India be persuaded to pull back its offensive formations? What would we give in return? Pakistan can’t race a race that it can’t win.
The writer is the executive director of Center for Research and Security Studies, Pakistan. This column was written for Jang.
By Farrukh Saleem, TNN, 17 January 2010
TOI..........Aman ki Aasha
The Himalayan ranges, covering an area of about 650,000 sq km, have shaped the culture, politics, religion, mythology, climate and military doctrines of all six countries - Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The Great Mountain Arc encircles India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan - a land mass of a little more than four million sq km. This area has 1.5 billion inhabitants; around 22% of the world population in an area about half the size of the US.
The arc, the inescapable environmental stimuli in the Indo-Pak region, has been the most impenetrable natural barrier between the subcontinent and whatever lies north, east or west of the Arc. Genghis Khan founded the ‘largest contiguous empire in history’ but failed to circumvent the Himalayas into India. The Himalayas continue to shield India from invaders in the north (read: China). Other than the Sino-Indian border skirmishes of 1962, the history has never witnessed any major invasion across the Himalayas.
As a consequence, based on environmental determinism, Indian military strategists in the post-Independence period laid out an ‘Order of Battle’ whereby at least half of all Indian Army corps were stationed within a striking distance from the Indo-Pak border. Pakistani strategists, with little threat from the west, also laid out an ‘Order of Battle’ whereby six of the nine corps were stationed within a striking distance from the border.
India and Pakistan are in a state of active hostility. For FY 2009, India’s defence spend, as per Jane’s Information Group, will rise by 50% to a colossal $32.7 billion. The budget translates into 2.7% of the country’s GDP. In the same period, Pakistan’s official defence spend is set at $4.3 billion (unofficial estimates go as high as $7.8 billion). If we were to match India’s rise, we would have to spend above 5% of our GDP on defence. For the record, the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia used to overspend their GDP on defence - Soviet Union is no more, so is Czechoslovakia.
As per the World Bank data, 74% of Pakistanis earn $2/day or less as opposed to 75% Indians. Roughly, one out of every two Pakistanis is short on food. Last year, there were 60 million Pakistanis short on food. That number now stands at 77 million; a 28% increase.
Over the past century, economic development has been all about trans and cross-border trading. Pakistan has two population centres - central Punjab and Karachi. The former is 1000km away from the nearest port. And the area between Karachi and central Punjab can’t support population concentration. To grow, we must trade. And, the only population concentration to trade with is on our east.
Time and money are on India’s side. Dialogue among civilians means little. What is needed is a strategic dialogue. How can India be persuaded to pull back its offensive formations? What would we give in return? Pakistan can’t race a race that it can’t win.
The writer is the executive director of Center for Research and Security Studies, Pakistan. This column was written for Jang.