I see the IOC giving the games to the city that will receive the most sporting benefit for its country. 'Benefit' does not mean doing anything to win medals in the short term but rather developing a long term sporting culture, even if that means having to wait awhile to develop elite athlete status. This could work in Doha's favour if it ditches its present policy of buying non-nationals and solely concentrates on developing local talent however low level it is at the moment.

I don't go to mythical places with strange men.
-- Douglas Adams, The Long Dark Tea-Time of the Soul.