What is the possibility of inflation, industrial production and geopolitical events on Indian currency? What is the chance of Indian currency, its increase or decrease compare to Qatar riyal?
The negatives for the country in 2012 are its weak governement finances, lower growth on spill over effects from 2011 and no resolution to the eurozone debt crisis.
Deteriorating Indian fundamentals have added to the worries about the Indian rupee (INR). Below-trend GDP growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2012 (July-Sep 2011), with October Industrial production similar to the levels seen in early 2009 has confirmed India's economic slowdown.
While November industrial production may rebound on better economic data, the elimination of volatile components and more working days, it is unlikely to provide a reason to cheer.
"Indeed, with subdued industrial activity and a lagged negative effect on the services sector, GDP growth may fall below 6.5% y/y in the coming quarters," Standard Chartered analyst Anubhuti Sahay wrote in a note to clients.
Sahay expects the INR may weaken further near-term on growth concerns and capital outflows. Although India is a relatively closed economy, the INR is a pro-cyclical currency and cyclical challenges are likely to outweigh seasonal positives into the first quarter of 2012.
"In addition, we expect little near-term relief for the trade deficit, as exports slow and the reduction in the import bill is limited by oil imports and investors' huge appetite for gold. As such, we do not expect INR strength to resume until economic expectations bottom out, spurring portfolio flows back into Indian markets," said Sahay.
Now, all eyes will be on the policy meeting of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Dec.16 at which the country's Central Bank may hint at some measures to prevent the downfall of rupee.
While a cut in the repo rate, which currently stands at 8.50 percent, is not expected, there is some hope of lowering the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from its current level of 6.00 percent.
The liquidity deficit in the banking system of 880 billion rupees, well above the RBI's comfort level of 600 billion rupees, has increased such expectations.
However, with inflation still at elevated levels and the previous rate hikes still feeding through to the real economy, Sahay expects that the RBI will be in no hurry to signal a change in stance this week. Indeed, following recent comments from the RBI that the CRR is also considered a monetary policy tool, a cut in the CRR appears unlikely.
"In terms of supporting banking-system liquidity, we expect the RBI to continue with its open market operations (OMO). Any rate cuts will thus have to wait until Q2-2012 when WPI inflation cools to 6.5-7.0%," added Sahay.
The rupee started tumbling after the downgrading of U.S. credit ranking and eurozone crisis. It slid against the dollar from 44.40 in July to 45.50 in August, 47.60 in September, 49.30 in October and 52.70 in November.
Investors recently have lost confidence in the currencies of emerging economies such as Indian Rupee as worsening debt crisis in Europe is hurting the sentiment. As a result, the rupee became the worst performing currency among major Asian peers and is expected to continue its downward spiral against the U.S. dollar.
Amid rising oil import bill and external debt, the rupee-dollar exchange rate could well reach the levels of 53.80 by January 2012 and 55.10 by March 2012 if the global economy continues to be bleak like in recent months, industry body ASSOCHAM (Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India) said late November.
Chances are great..either way its up or down..it can only go one way..either increase or decrease? in my opinion it will be less or more..up or down..this my professional opinion but I may be mistake..whats the currency called again?
Qatar's winter months are brimming with unmissable experiences, from the AFC Asian Cup 2023 to the World Aquatics Championships Doha 2024 and a variety of outdoor adventures and cultural delights.
Fasten your seatbelts and get ready for a sweet escape into the world of budget-friendly Mango Sticky Rice that's sure to satisfy both your cravings and your budget!
Celebrate World Vegan Day with our list of vegan food outlets offering an array of delectable options, spanning from colorful salads to savory shawarma and indulgent desserts.
The negatives for the country in 2012 are its weak governement finances, lower growth on spill over effects from 2011 and no resolution to the eurozone debt crisis.
Deteriorating Indian fundamentals have added to the worries about the Indian rupee (INR). Below-trend GDP growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2012 (July-Sep 2011), with October Industrial production similar to the levels seen in early 2009 has confirmed India's economic slowdown.
While November industrial production may rebound on better economic data, the elimination of volatile components and more working days, it is unlikely to provide a reason to cheer.
"Indeed, with subdued industrial activity and a lagged negative effect on the services sector, GDP growth may fall below 6.5% y/y in the coming quarters," Standard Chartered analyst Anubhuti Sahay wrote in a note to clients.
Sahay expects the INR may weaken further near-term on growth concerns and capital outflows. Although India is a relatively closed economy, the INR is a pro-cyclical currency and cyclical challenges are likely to outweigh seasonal positives into the first quarter of 2012.
"In addition, we expect little near-term relief for the trade deficit, as exports slow and the reduction in the import bill is limited by oil imports and investors' huge appetite for gold. As such, we do not expect INR strength to resume until economic expectations bottom out, spurring portfolio flows back into Indian markets," said Sahay.
Now, all eyes will be on the policy meeting of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Dec.16 at which the country's Central Bank may hint at some measures to prevent the downfall of rupee.
While a cut in the repo rate, which currently stands at 8.50 percent, is not expected, there is some hope of lowering the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from its current level of 6.00 percent.
The liquidity deficit in the banking system of 880 billion rupees, well above the RBI's comfort level of 600 billion rupees, has increased such expectations.
However, with inflation still at elevated levels and the previous rate hikes still feeding through to the real economy, Sahay expects that the RBI will be in no hurry to signal a change in stance this week. Indeed, following recent comments from the RBI that the CRR is also considered a monetary policy tool, a cut in the CRR appears unlikely.
"In terms of supporting banking-system liquidity, we expect the RBI to continue with its open market operations (OMO). Any rate cuts will thus have to wait until Q2-2012 when WPI inflation cools to 6.5-7.0%," added Sahay.
The rupee started tumbling after the downgrading of U.S. credit ranking and eurozone crisis. It slid against the dollar from 44.40 in July to 45.50 in August, 47.60 in September, 49.30 in October and 52.70 in November.
Investors recently have lost confidence in the currencies of emerging economies such as Indian Rupee as worsening debt crisis in Europe is hurting the sentiment. As a result, the rupee became the worst performing currency among major Asian peers and is expected to continue its downward spiral against the U.S. dollar.
Amid rising oil import bill and external debt, the rupee-dollar exchange rate could well reach the levels of 53.80 by January 2012 and 55.10 by March 2012 if the global economy continues to be bleak like in recent months, industry body ASSOCHAM (Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India) said late November.
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/267697/20111215/indian-rupee-touch-58-dollar-eyes-rbi.htm
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=192428&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
in India it is increasing, as so may containers of Counterfeit notes are coming from various sources....
Try to visit Reserve Bank of India website.
Chances are great..either way its up or down..it can only go one way..either increase or decrease? in my opinion it will be less or more..up or down..this my professional opinion but I may be mistake..whats the currency called again?