Migrant population to decrease in Qatar by 2030

Qatar expects a steady decline of migrants in the coming years as the current employment rates are expected to fall, according to the Ministry of Economy and Commerce (MEC).

The 2000s were a period of "extraordinary" demographic change in Qatar with the migrant population increasing by 155,000 between 2000 and 2005 and by an "unprecedented" 800,000 from 2005 to 2010.

The influx of workers and expatriates from all walks life into Qatar resulted in a "dramatic" expansion of the working-age population, a trend which continued with the arrival of another estimated half a million people expected between 2010 and 2015.

Current employment rates of nearly 75% are expected to fall in the next few years before coming down over the outlook period (2015-30) as the supply of labour diminishes.

Most of the increase in Qatar's population from 25-64 (years) has come from international immigration, the cohort will continue to expand albeit more slowly over the next 10 years as immigration is expected to slow.

The upside scenarios of true diversification and new pockets (which assume the global economy and oil prices as relatively strong) see employment remaining the same of expanding by 1% from their current values but the downside scenarios of lost advantage and energy plus (which assume the global economy and oil prices as relatively soft) predict a potentially larger drop of 3% to 4% overall.

"Given a decline is expected across scenarios, it will become imperative to slow the expected decline in the share of employed in order to give enough time for productivity to become a stronger growth engine," MEC said.

By 2030, the difference between the energy plus and new pockets scenarios would amount to some 3% of the population or around 400,000 less employed generating output.

"Qatar could still enjoy an employee pool of almost 2.2mn workers by 2030 though the downside could mean 570,000 fewer," the model said. [Read more on Gulf Times]