Vip-Gold, I spent 10 years in this industry so definitely I know at least a few things about it. It is not gambling but very close to gambling. Is it not highly speculative?

In simple words you are trying to predict future. With no forecast you can predict future. There are so many things that cannot be gauged by any analysis and forecasts. There are hundreds of example from subprime crises to current global economic recession which happened mainly because some people 'gambled' on others' money.

There is a wise saying that "Forecast is a dangerous thing, particularly if it is about future!"