The new climate normal

According to bq magazine, There is little doubt that warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is locked-in to the earth’s atmosphere due emissions of greenhouse gases, and climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable. Climatic conditions, heat and other weather extremes which up till now occurred once in hundreds of years, if ever, and were considered highly unusual or unprecedented, will become the “new climate normal”. For this report, scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics looked at the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming.

The Middle East and North Africa - one of the most climate vulnerable regions

The MENA region will be severely affected at both 2°C and 4°C world average warming scenarios. In some countries, crop yields could decrease by up to 30 percent at 1.5–2°C and by almost 60 percent at 3–4°C. With its high and growing import dependency, the region is particularly food-security vulnerable, besides being water scarce and exposed to heat extremes already.

The population in Middle East and North Africa is projected to double by 2050, which together with projected climate impacts, puts the region under enormous pressure for water and other resources. Moreover, weather-induced conditions may contribute to internal and international migration, adding further stress on urban areas and bringing about health risks, particularly for poor migrants. Migration and climate‐related pressure on resources might increase the risk of conflict.

Temperatures and heat extremes

From 1961–1990 a warming of about 0.2°C per decade has been observed in the region, and at an even faster rate since then. The strongest warming is projected to take place close to the Mediterranean coast, in inland Algeria, Libya and large parts of Egypt, where warming by 3°C in a 2°C world is projected by the end of the century. Highly unusual heat extremes will occur in about 30 percent of summer months almost everywhere in the MENA region. In this scenario, the annual number of hot days with exceptionally high temperatures and high thermal discomfort is expected to increase in several capital cities, from four to 62 days in Amman (Jordan), from eight to 90 days in Baghdad (Iraq) and from one to 71 days in Damascus (Syria), while Riyadh is expected to see the number of hot days rising to 132 per year.

Unprecedented heat extremes, however, will remain largely absent in a 2°C scenario, except for some isolated coastal regions, such as the  Mediterranean coasts of Egypt, and in Yemen, Djibouti and Oman. These events are expected to occur in 5–10 percent of summer months.

In a 4°C scenario, mean summer temperatures are expected to be up by as much as 8°C in parts of Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq by the end of this century. The average number of hot days is projected to exceed 115 days per year in all of the cities mentioned above.

Whereas the increase in frequency of heat extremes is expected to level off by mid-century in a 2°C world, in a 4°C world it will continue increasing until the end of the century. In a 4°C scenario, about 65 percent of summer months are projected to fall into 'unprecedented heat extremes' category during the 2071–2099 period, and 80 percent by 2100.

Rainfall will be reduced in North Africa, Maghreb, and Mashrek. In a 4°C world, countries along the Mediterranean shore, notably Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt, are projected to receive substantially less rain. There will be an increase in moisture delivery to the southern parts of the region, in particular to the southern Arabian Peninsula (Yemen, Oman), with regions north of 25°N becoming relatively drier and regions to the south becoming wetter.

The Sahel and the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula bordering the Indian Ocean (Yemen, Oman) are projected to become wetter in both a 2°C and 4°C world, primarily during the summer months (June, July, August - JJA). Unfortunately this doesn't mean much more water available, as these regions are already very dry today, with the exception of Yemen. Also, the effect of increased precipitation is expected to be counteracted by a simultaneous increase in temperature, resulting in a higher rate of evaporation. What's more, an increase in precipitation in the southern parts of the region could bring more intense and extreme precipitation events, such as floods.

For more on this story visit bq magazine’s website